Myriad Labs Market Research
Bitcoin is at $81,530, up 0.5% on the month and 41% of the way up its one-year range, while every rung of the risk ladder lost buyers over the same weeks, from Treasuries to unprofitable growth. Crypto is not carrying the risk-off in its leverage: Binance funding on bitcoin is 9.3% annualised, below the 10.95% an exchange charges with no premium at all, and the perpetuals trade a few hundredths of a percent under spot. The regulated side is quiet too. The CME premium pays a carry desk 1.2 points over financing, and leveraged funds cut their CME shorts to 29,220 bitcoin from 34,260 a week earlier. The two places where the stress shows are options, where puts cost 3.1 volatility points more than equally distant calls, and the miners, which now trade with chip stocks and are down 39.2% on average in 20 sessions.
Bitcoin, daily close, 120 days (UTC)last Mon, Oct 19
Not measured this edition: box-implied financing rate; CME BTCF7 settlement.
The CFTC report shows the shape the carry trade leaves: asset managers net long 18,210 bitcoin of CME futures, leveraged funds net short 29,220. Leveraged funds cut that short by 5,040 bitcoin in the week to 13 October, and the position is about half its April size. The trade pays little to reopen. The November contract settled 5.0% annualised over spot, 1.2 points over SOFR at 3.88%, and the October contract, which carries most of the volume until it expires on 30 October, was at 2.8%, under SOFR. Offshore, Deribit's futures curve runs from 8.1% at the 23 October contract down to about 5.5% a year out. IBIT traded $1.7bn on Monday, in line with its 20-session average of $1.8bn. Its share count, 1.420 billion as of 16 October, starts this edition's record; the daily creation figure begins with the next edition.
CME bitcoin futures, net position by trader type (bitcoin)CFTC, weekly
Asset managers net long, leveraged funds net short: the shape the carry trade leaves. Asset managers +0.6k BTC on the week.
Futures premium to spot, annualised, by days to expirydashed: SOFR 3.88%
CME at the 20:00 UTC settlement on Mon, Oct 19; Deribit marks at 00:33 UTC. Spot is the vendor’s bitcoin price at each moment.
| Contract | Expiry | Days | Price | Contracts traded | Premium, annualised | Less SOFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME BTCV6 | Fri, Oct 30 | 11 | $81,830 | 7,312 | +2.8% | −1.1 pts |
| CME BTCX6 | Fri, Nov 27 | 39 | $82,200 | 428 | +5.0% | +1.2 pts |
| CME BTCZ6 | Thu, Dec 24 | 66 | $82,555 | 3 | +5.4% | +1.5 pts |
| Deribit 23OCT26 | Fri, Oct 23 | 3 | $81,577 | — | +8.1% | +4.3 pts |
| Deribit 30OCT26 | Fri, Oct 30 | 10 | $81,691 | — | +7.6% | +3.7 pts |
| Deribit 6NOV26 | Fri, Nov 6 | 17 | $81,761 | — | +6.3% | +2.4 pts |
| Deribit 27NOV26 | Fri, Nov 27 | 38 | $82,025 | — | +5.9% | +2.1 pts |
| Deribit 25DEC26 | Fri, Dec 25 | 66 | $82,379 | — | +5.8% | +1.9 pts |
| Deribit 26MAR27 | Fri, Mar 26 | 157 | $83,434 | — | +5.5% | +1.6 pts |
CME months with only a handful of contracts traded settle at the exchange’s mark, not at a trade. IBIT’s daily creations need two days of the sponsor’s share count; this edition’s count is the first in the record.
Not measured: box-implied financing rate. CMIS refused every tenor this morning (quotes too wide or too few pairs).
Not measured: CME BTCF7 settlement. no official settlement for 2026-10-19 in the daily bars.
A carry desk buys fund shares and sells CME futures to earn the premium, paying roughly SOFR to finance it. When the premium is barely above that cost, the trade stops growing, and the fund flow it used to bring stops with it.
This session With the carry paying about a point over financing, the spread trade has little reason to grow, so the fund flows that do arrive are mostly directional money.
| Binance perpetual | Hyperliquid perpetual | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coin | Funding | 30-day avg | Premium | Open interest | 7 days | Funding | Open interest | 24 hours |
| Bitcoin | +9.3% | +3.5% | −0.045% | $7.7bn | +1.7% | +10.9% | $3.2bn | +2.2% |
| Ether | +5.8% | +4.1% | −0.048% | $5.5bn | +0.7% | +10.9% | $2.6bn | +1.2% |
| Solana | +8.7% | +3.5% | −0.042% | $918m | +1.1% | −4.2% | $573m | +0.6% |
Funding annualised. Baseline on both exchanges: 10.95% a year, the built-in interest with no premium.
Funding on all three coins is below the 10.95% baseline on Binance: 9.3% on bitcoin, 5.8% on ether and 8.7% on solana, against 30-day averages between 3.5% and 4.1%. Each perpetual trades slightly under its spot index. Open interest is little changed: bitcoin's $7.7bn on Binance is up 1.7% in a week, ether's $5.5bn up 0.7%. On Hyperliquid bitcoin and ether sit exactly at the baseline, while solana's funding is −4.2%, the premium paid to shorts, and 18 of the 25 listed coins read sit at the baseline. Leverage is in the market but is not crowded on either side.
Bitcoin perpetual open interest on Binance, 30 daysdollars
18 of 25 listed coins sit exactly at the baseline; 3 with no open interest (delisted) left out.
| Coin | Funding | Open interest | 24 hours | Traded, 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNB | +10.1% | $42m | −4.5% | $7m |
| TRX | +3.0% | $13m | +3.3% | $2m |
| AAVE | +2.5% | $56m | −0.1% | $8m |
| NEAR | −2.2% | $287m | −3.6% | $154m |
| SOL | −4.2% | $573m | +0.6% | $176m |
| AVAX | −4.5% | $20m | +0.8% | $2m |
| ADA | −17.6% | $32m | +0.6% | $4m |
Perpetual funding is the price of holding leverage. Funding below the exchange's built-in rate means longs are not paying a premium, so there is no crowd of leveraged longs that a fall would force out.
This session The forced-order fuel that turns a small move into a large one is thin on both sides this morning.
Bitcoin's DVOL is 38.0, up from 35.7 a month ago and 5.8 points over the 32.2 realised in the past 30 days; ether's is 52.4 against 36.2 realised. Puts are dearer than calls: Deribit's 25-delta skew at the 27 November expiry is −3.1 points and IBIT's at 20 November is −1.9. The open interest sits above spot in calls, $2.2bn at $95,000, $1.6bn at $90,000 and $1.3bn at $100,000, and below in puts at $75,000, $70,000 and $80,000. In IBIT the largest call strike above spot is $50, about $88,296 in bitcoin, and the largest put strike below is $40, about $70,636. The 30 October Deribit expiry holds $12.1bn with a put/call ratio of 0.51 and a max pain of $78,000; the 25 December expiry holds $10.6bn.
Implied volatility, DVOL, 120 daysDeribit
Bitcoin option open interest by expiry, Deribitnotional, dollars
| Expiry | Days | Open | Put/call | Max pain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20 | 0.3 | $290m | 1.51 | $82,000 |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 1.3 | $107m | 1.72 | $82,000 |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 2.3 | $55m | 1.24 | $82,500 |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 3.3 | $1.2bn | 1.23 | $82,000 |
| Fri, Oct 30 | 10.3 | $12.1bn | 0.51 | $78,000 |
| Fri, Nov 6 | 17.3 | $290m | 0.84 | $82,000 |
| Fri, Nov 27 | 38.3 | $2.2bn | 0.59 | $81,000 |
| Fri, Dec 25 | 66.3 | $10.6bn | 0.62 | $75,000 |
Expiries under $50m open left out. Total bitcoin option open interest $31.9bn.
Deribit calls above spot (45 days)
Deribit puts below spot (45 days)
IBIT calls above $46.30
IBIT puts below $46.30
IBIT strikes converted at 56.6280 fund dollars per 100,000 bitcoin dollars: IBIT $46.30 against bitcoin $81,762 at the Mon, Oct 19 close. IBIT put/call open interest 0.75.
Negative skew means protection costs more than upside. Large open interest above spot in calls and below in puts concentrates dealer hedging around those strikes as the month-end expiry nears.
This session The market is paying for downside protection while the leverage market is calm, so the stress is held in options rather than in borrowed positions.
| Rung | 20 sessions | State | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treasuries, 7-10 year | −1.2% | losing buyers | |
| Investment-grade credit | −2.1% | losing buyers | |
| High-yield credit | −2.4% | losing buyers | |
| Lowest-rated credit (CCC spread) | +2.14 pp | losing buyers | |
| Small caps | −5.0% | losing buyers | |
| Unprofitable growth | −9.3% | losing buyers | |
| Bitcoin | −5.5% | losing buyers |
7 of 7 rungs losing buyers. CCC: change in the spread over Treasuries, Fri, Oct 16. Bitcoin over 28 days, the span of 20 sessions.
| Market | Reads | 30 days | 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | risk appetite in growth stocks | +0.61 | +0.37 |
| Semiconductors SMH | the AI spending trade | +0.50 | +0.26 |
| Gold GLD | demand for a store of value outside the system | +0.26 | +0.55 |
| US dollar UUP | dollar strength and funding | no link (+0.03) | −0.34 |
| Long Treasuries TLT | real rates and duration | no link (+0.18) | no link (+0.14) |
Correlation of daily returns. Under 0.2 either way: no measurable link.
Every rung lost buyers over the last 20 sessions: Treasuries −1.2%, investment-grade credit −2.1%, high yield −2.4%, the CCC spread wider by 2.14 points, small caps −5.0%, unprofitable growth −9.3%, and bitcoin −5.5% over the same 28 days. Rates did part of it, and the far end of credit did more: the CCC spread widened by 2.14 points against 0.63 for high yield as a whole. Bitcoin's 28-day figure starts the day of a jump on 21 September, which is why it reads lower than the 30-day change on the front page. Its 30-day links are to growth stocks and chips, at 0.61 and 0.50, not to the dollar or Treasuries. Net liquidity is $5.87tn, up $3.0bn in four weeks, and SOFR sits 2 basis points under the reserve rate, so overnight funding shows no stress.
Risk appetite is withdrawn from the far end of the ladder first. When the lowest-rated credit widens faster than high yield and small caps and unprofitable growth fall hardest, the rungs nearest crypto are the ones losing buyers.
This session Bitcoin is moving with growth stocks and chips, so the forces reaching it this month come through equity risk appetite rather than the dollar or Treasuries.
Stablecoin supply is $305.0bn. It fell $1.7bn in seven days, $0.94bn of it USDT and $0.84bn USDC, after rising $1.1bn over the month. Over 30 days USDC is down $2.20bn while USDT is flat, so the month's growth came from the smaller stablecoins. The Coinbase premium is −0.128%: bitcoin is cheaper on Coinbase in dollars than on Binance in tether, the reading when the US side is not the one buying.
Stablecoin supply, 120 daysDefiLlama, all dollar stablecoins
Stablecoins are the crypto system's cash balance. A falling supply means dollars have left the system; a negative Coinbase premium means US accounts are not the marginal buyer.
This session New cash is not arriving this week, which leaves price set by the positions already in the market.
| Stock | Reaches crypto as | Price | 20 sessions | Link to bitcoin | Link to chips | Trades with |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | Bitcoin treasury company | $136.02 | −19.3% | +0.80 | +0.39 | bitcoin |
| COIN | Exchange and custody | $168.45 | −16.2% | +0.75 | +0.25 | bitcoin |
| HOOD | Retail broker | $96.52 | −21.7% | +0.60 | +0.32 | bitcoin |
| CRCL | Stablecoin issuer | $81.37 | −13.9% | +0.64 | +0.29 | bitcoin |
| MARA | Miner | $7.375 | −44.5% | +0.56 | +0.62 | chips |
| RIOT | Miner | $13.97 | −42.2% | +0.44 | +0.67 | chips |
| CLSK | Miner | $8.460 | −42.7% | +0.40 | +0.68 | chips |
| IREN | Miner | $27.73 | −41.3% | +0.30 | +0.78 | chips |
| CORZ | Miner | $13.73 | −25.2% | +0.32 | +0.70 | chips |
| CIFR | Miner | $8.940 | −52.7% | +0.28 | +0.59 | chips |
| WULF | Miner | $12.06 | −30.9% | +0.30 | +0.72 | chips |
| HUT | Miner | $68.17 | −34.1% | +0.30 | +0.64 | chips |
Links: correlation of daily returns over 60 sessions with bitcoin and with the semiconductor fund (SMH). Miners: 8 of 8 closer to chips than to bitcoin; average 20-session move −39.2%.
Link to bitcoin (across) against link to chips (up)
The bitcoin treasury company, the exchange, the broker and the stablecoin issuer still trade with bitcoin, with 60-session links between 0.60 and 0.80. The miners do not. All 8 are closer to the semiconductor fund than to bitcoin, at an average link of 0.67 against 0.36, and IREN's link to chips is 0.78. The miners fell an average 39.2% in 20 sessions against bitcoin's 5.5% over the same weeks: they are moving with the AI build-out and its financing, not with the coin.
Many miners now rent power and buildings to AI computing. Their revenue and their borrowing now depend on that build-out, so they trade with chip stocks and with the credit that funds data centres.
This session A miner's move this quarter says more about AI spending and its financing than about bitcoin.
| When | What | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| — | US month-end in 9 sessions | outside the rebalancing window |
| Thu, Oct 22 | Jobless claims | high-impact US release |
| Fri, Oct 23 | Deribit weekly bitcoin options expire, 08:00 UTC | $1.2bn open · put/call 1.23 |
| Fri, Oct 23 | Michigan sentiment | high-impact US release |
| Fri, Oct 30 | CME front-month bitcoin futures expire | positions roll to the next month in the days before |
| Fri, Oct 30 | Deribit month-end bitcoin options expire, 08:00 UTC | $12.1bn open · put/call 0.51 · max pain $78,000 |
| Fri, Nov 20 | IBIT and US equity monthly options expire | 2.36m IBIT contracts open to 60 days |
Two dates carry size. Deribit's month-end expiry on Friday 30 October holds $12.1bn of bitcoin options, the same day the CME October contract expires. US month-end is 9 sessions away. Between now and Friday the US calendar has jobless claims on Thursday and the Michigan sentiment survey on Friday.
Large expiries concentrate hedging. The 30 October Deribit expiry and the CME October expiry fall on the same day, when option dealers unwind hedges and futures holders roll to November.
This session Hedging flows are largest in the days around 30 October.
This is the first edition. The review starts with the next one, reading this morning’s figures against that morning’s.
Prime Crypto Brief is published every trading morning before the New York open: the regulated and offshore sides of the market, the cost of carrying the position, and the outside channels reaching crypto. It makes no calls. It comes with Prime All Access.
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